Applied machine learning for the risk-stratification and clinical decision support of hospitalised patients with dengue in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients at risk of dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is vital for effective healthcare delivery. This can be challenging in endemic settings because of high caseloads and limited resources. Machine learning models trained using clinical data could support decision-making in this context. METHODS: We developed supervised machine learning prediction models using pooled data from adult and paediatric patients hospitalised with dengue. Individuals from 5 prospective clinical studies in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam conducted between 12th April 2001 and 30th January 2018 were included. The outcome was onset of dengue shock syndrome during hospitalisation. Data underwent random stratified splitting at 80:20 ratio with the former used only for model development. Ten-fold cross-validation was used for hyperparameter optimisation and confidence intervals derived from percentile bootstrapping. Optimised models were evaluated against the hold-out set. FINDINGS: The final dataset included 4,131 patients (477 adults and 3,654 children). DSS was experienced by 222 (5.4%) of individuals. Predictors were age, sex, weight, day of illness at hospitalisation, indices of haematocrit and platelets over first 48 hours of admission and before the onset of DSS. An artificial neural network model (ANN) model had best performance with an area under receiver operator curve (AUROC) of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.85) in predicting DSS. When evaluated against the independent hold-out set this calibrated model exhibited an AUROC of 0.82, specificity of 0.84, sensitivity of 0.66, positive predictive value of 0.18 and negative predictive value of 0.98. INTERPRETATION: The study demonstrates additional insights can be obtained from basic healthcare data, when applied through a machine learning framework. The high negative predictive value could support interventions such as early discharge or ambulatory patient management in this population. Work is underway to incorporate these findings into an electronic clinical decision support system to guide individual patient management.

Using NS1 Flavivirus Protein Microarray to Infer Past Infecting Dengue Virus Serotype and Number of Past Dengue Virus Infections in Vietnamese Individuals.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, researchers have had an increased focus on multiplex microarray assays, in which antibodies are measured against multiple related antigens, for use in seroepidemiological studies to infer past transmission. METHODS: We assess the performance of a flavivirus microarray assay for determining past dengue virus (DENV) infection history in a dengue-endemic setting, Vietnam. We tested the microarray on samples from 1 and 6 months postinfection from DENV-infected patients (infecting serotype was determined using reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction during acute, past primary, and secondary infection assessed using plaque reduction neutralization tests 6 months postinfection). RESULTS: Binomial models developed to discriminate past primary from secondary infection using the protein microarray (PMA) titers had high area under the curve (0.90-0.97) and accuracy (0.84-0.86). Multinomial models developed to identify most recent past infecting serotype using PMA titers performed well in those with past primary infection (average test set: κ = 0.85, accuracy of 0.92) but not those with past secondary infection (κ = 0.24, accuracy of 0.45). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the microarray will be useful in seroepidemiological studies aimed at classifying the past infection history of individuals (past primary vs secondary and serotype of past primary infections) and thus inferring past transmission intensity of DENV in dengue-endemic settings. Future work to validate these models should be undertaken in different transmission settings and with samples later after infection.

Higher Plasma Viremia in the Febrile Phase Is Associated With Adverse Dengue Outcomes Irrespective of Infecting Serotype or Host Immune Status: An Analysis of 5642 Vietnamese Cases.

BACKGROUND: One of the generally accepted constructs of dengue pathogenesis is that clinical disease severity is at least partially dependent upon plasma viremia, yet data on plasma viremia in primary versus secondary infections and in relation to clinically relevant endpoints remain limited and contradictory. METHODS: Using a large database comprising detailed clinical and laboratory characterization of Vietnamese participants enrolled in a series of research studies executed over a 15-year period, we explored relationships between plasma viremia measured by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and 3 clinically relevant endpoints-severe dengue, plasma leakage, and hospitalization-in the dengue-confirmed cases. All 4 dengue serotypes and both primary and secondary infections were well represented. In our logistic regression models we allowed for a nonlinear effect of viremia and for associations between viremia and outcome to differ by age, serotype, host immune status, and illness day at study enrollment. RESULTS: Among 5642 dengue-confirmed cases we identified 259 (4.6%) severe dengue cases, 701 (12.4%) patients with plasma leakage, and 1441 of 4008 (40.0%) patients recruited in outpatient settings who were subsequently hospitalized. From the early febrile phase onwards, higher viremia increased the risk of developing all 3 endpoints, but effect sizes were modest (ORs ranging from 1.12-1.27 per 1-log increase) compared with the effects of a secondary immune response (ORs, 1.67-7.76). The associations were consistent across age, serotype, and immune status groups, and in the various sensitivity and subgroup analyses we undertook. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma viremia is associated with increased dengue severity, regardless of serotype or immune status.

A Prognostic Model for Development of Profound Shock among Children Presenting with Dengue Shock Syndrome.

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors and develop a prediction model for the development of profound and recurrent shock amongst children presenting with dengue shock syndrome (DSS). METHODS: We analyzed data from a prospective cohort of children with DSS recruited at the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit of the Hospital for Tropical Disease in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The primary endpoint was "profound DSS", defined as ≥2 recurrent shock episodes (for subjects presenting in compensated shock), or ≥1 recurrent shock episodes (for subjects presenting initially with decompensated/hypotensive shock), and/or requirement for inotropic support. Recurrent shock was evaluated as a secondary endpoint. Risk factors were pre-defined clinical and laboratory variables collected at the time of presentation with shock. Prognostic model development was based on logistic regression and compared to several alternative approaches. RESULTS: The analysis population included 1207 children of whom 222 (18%) progressed to "profound DSS" and 433 (36%) had recurrent shock. Independent risk factors for both endpoints included younger age, earlier presentation, higher pulse rate, higher temperature, higher haematocrit and, for females, worse hemodynamic status at presentation. The final prognostic model for "profound DSS" showed acceptable discrimination (AUC=0.69 for internal validation) and calibration and is presented as a simple score-chart. CONCLUSIONS: Several risk factors for development of profound or recurrent shock among children presenting with DSS were identified. The score-chart derived from the prognostic models should improve triage and management of children presenting with DSS in dengue-endemic areas.

Clinical characteristics of Dengue shock syndrome in Vietnamese children: a 10-year prospective study in a single hospital.

BACKGROUND: Dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is a severe manifestation of dengue virus infection that particularly affects children and young adults. Despite its increasing global importance, there are no prospective studies describing the clinical characteristics, management, or outcomes of DSS. METHODS: We describe the findings at onset of shock and the clinical evolution until discharge or death, from a comprehensive prospective dataset of 1719 Vietnamese children with laboratory-confirmed DSS managed on a single intensive care unit between 1999 and 2009. RESULTS: The median age of patients was 10 years. Most cases had secondary immune responses, with only 6 clear primary infections, and all 4 dengue virus serotypes were represented during the 10-year study. Shock occurred commonly between days 4 and 6 of illness. Clinical signs and symptoms were generally consistent with empirical descriptions of DSS, although at presentation 153 (9%) were still febrile and almost one-third had no bleeding. Overall, 31 (2%) patients developed severe bleeding, primarily from the gastrointestinal tract, 26 of whom required blood transfusion. Only 8 patients died, although 123 of 1719 (7%) patients had unrecordable blood pressure at presentation and 417 of the remaining 1596 (26%) were hypotensive for age. The majority recovered well with standard crystalloid resuscitation or following a single colloid infusion. All cases were classified as severe dengue, while only 70% eventually fulfilled all 4 criteria for the 1997 World Health Organization classification of dengue hemorrhagic fever. CONCLUSIONS: With prompt intervention and assiduous clinical care by experienced staff, the outcome of this potentially fatal condition can be excellent.